Experts warn of 2026 pandemic as infectious virus goes ‘out of control’

Scientists are worried about a particular strain of bird flu which is spreading all over the world, with worries that a human outbreak would be hard to contain

Experts are worried about a ‘concerning virus’ that’s sweeping across the world at an ‘unprecedented scale’ with fears that it could tip into a human pandemic next year. There are worries around a highly infectious strain of bird flu, known as H5N1.

Since 2020, this form of bird flu has infected millions of farm animals and spilled into mammals at an unexpected speed. In the US, it’s now found in dairy cattle, something no one expected. H5N1 first came from Asia in the late nineties, but over the last six years, a difficult version of the virus, known as clade 2.3.4.4b has jumped from bird to bird faster than expected.

It comes after the virus was detected on six continents, including areas like Antarctica that had never reported bird flu before.

According to BBC Science Focus, more than 80 million poultry have been infected in the US alone, and over 1,000 dairy farms have reported outbreaks. As a result, the price of eggs have gone up, and the US government has spent more than £881m to compensate farmers for losses.

While human cases remain limited at 71, with two deaths, finding HSN1 in US dairy cattle, was shocking.

Dr Ed Hutchinson, professor of molecular and cellular virology at the University of Glasgow, said: “This was to everyone’s astonishment. You now have a situation where a large proportion of consumer milk in the US at any given time contains genetic material from these highly pathogenic viruses.”

Pasteurisation is able to destroy the virus. However, those working on dairy farms, or enjoy raw milk are still at high risk of catching the virus. That unexpected species jump, alongside evidence of infection in several animals, means the virus is able to adapt, change and twist.

The expert added: “It’s now a global problem. As a disease of wild animals, it’s completely out of control. It’s raging around the world, and there’s no feasible containment method other than just watching it infect huge populations of animals.”

The spillover into mammals is concerning. In South America, mass die-offs have affected sea lions, while almost half of the world’s female breeding population of southern elephant seals may already have been killed, according to research.

While the US is thought to have stockpiled millions of vaccines against bird flu, there are additional concerns. For instance, not only are human and animal infections rising, but data sharing has become harder to interpret, meaning that early warning signs could be missed.

There is also resistance to vaccination in the US. Poultry producers and lawmakers have opposed vaccination on trade grounds, warning that it could harm export markets and cost the chicken industry £7.4bn if other countries ban US meat.

Modelling has also been carried out, to explore the impact of the virus if it caused an outbreak. A 2025 study from Indian researchers found that once a pandemic strain began spreading in humans, the window for effective containment could be just 2 to 10 detected cases. Afterwards, containment would become almost impossible.

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